It looks like the LED current would try to be VBE/33 which is about 20 mA. The problem is that a VBE across the 33 Ohm resistor (and 3.8V across the FET) only leaves about 0.5V drop across the transistor which will put it close to saturation. It will have lower current gain and need more base current to support 20mA of collector current and it has to get that base current from R2.
EDIT TO ADD: at 20mA, the data sheet says the sat voltage is around 300mV with a gain of 10, so at 500mV VCE it might have decent gain (maybe 30?). It still needs to dump about 0.7mA out of the base. I would lower R2 to about 2K to give it headroom.