Continue to Site

Welcome to our site!

Electro Tech is an online community (with over 170,000 members) who enjoy talking about and building electronic circuits, projects and gadgets. To participate you need to register. Registration is free. Click here to register now.

  • Welcome to our site! Electro Tech is an online community (with over 170,000 members) who enjoy talking about and building electronic circuits, projects and gadgets. To participate you need to register. Registration is free. Click here to register now.

So, what did happen to all that warmth?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Exactly Scaedwian. Nail on the Head. It is just like Electromagnetic science in electronics. It wouldn't be usable if it "sometimes worked". Could you imagine trying to build an oscillator if you couldn't get two capacitors of the same reactance value to charge and discharge at the same rate? Or if two coils of the exact same demensions and applied voltages always radiated different shape and strength magnetic fields? Electronics would be a useless science if it wasn't valid 100% predictably.

One other point. Why is it that such infallable faith is being put behind scientists in this instance? Let me explain my question.

Every person I know at some time or another comments on how out culture is changing, becoming more and more corrupt in some fashion or another. Some find the changes more disturbing than others. Things you see on TV today that would never have been accepted 40 years ago, people not taking time to know their neighbors, children being raised by daycare workers instead of their mothers, divorce rates sky high, drug and alcohol addiction worse than ever before...etc etc. While I wouldn't say the world is falling apart, it is plain to see that our values are changing and becoming more and more self serving as a whole.

The effects of it can be seen everywhere. People in every walk of life have things to hide, personal demons, ambitions. People are a lot less mindful of the repercussions of their actions. If they are benefited in the here and now by doing something "wrong", sometimes the reward of doing the wrong thing is outweighed by the risk. Previous generations of people had a stricter moral compass and were more dilligent in doing the right thing no matter the cost. While there have always been bad people doing bad things, this is true of older generations "by and large" to borrow Brownout's term.

What does this have to do with scientists? Well, 100 years ago the world was still very much in the middle of the scientific revolution. Many laws and theories of science that serve us well even today were still being explored and defined. Electromagnetism, again for example, was just finding useful applications for the every day person outside of laboratories. Telephones, radio, power distribution to power appliances and lights were infant technologies. Physicists were busy working on sub-atomic theories that eventually became the nuclear revolution. Space exploration was a dream that was only a few short years from being a realistic plausibility. The list goes on and on.

Well, technology and advancement have certainly not halted...and without a doubt some major breakthroughs occur in science every day that we just don't hear about. The human genome being mapped, medical research...etc etc.

However, what was the last revolutionary discovery, I mean really earth shattering, that took science in a completely new direction? Most breakthroughs you hear about are just blips on the news or in magazine articles because they are not really "new" but rather they are deeper understandings or explanations for things we already know and understand. For instance, mapping human DNA, while important, isn't as earth shattering as "the discovery of dna". Or...faster, smaller microprocessors aren't as amazing or important as "the discovery of the semiconductor".

See where I'm going? I have a book called, "The trouble with Physics", a great book to read until it started getting over my head toward the end. It talks about the different sub-atomic theories like the standard model and "string theory". The author is very critical of "String Theory" because it really is a pile of BS that almost can't even be called a theory. The thrust of the book is not to criticize string theory though. He is more critical of the Physics community for putting all their eggs in one basket with "String Theory", because it is "sexier" and more exciting than other Physics concepts...whereas there is a whole lot more to work with in the Standard Model. He laments that Physics has reached this point where everyone just seems to be sitting around waiting for the next big discovery, yet nothing big has happened since the 1970s.

OK, the point of all of this? Science is kind of at a crossroads. Funding for science is a dwindling part of our tax dollars because the returns keep getting less and less. It is becoming more and more advantageous to fund projects that apply known science on an engineering level and improve upon technology that already exists. It is less and less worthwhile to pay some egg-head theorists to sit around, lost in their own little world, dreaming up explanations for all the world's problems. The Einsteins and Teslas of the 19th, 20th centuries are no longer needed in our current times.

EXCEPT in climate science. Isn't that the neatest thing? Almost overnight this little, insignificant branch of science that was barely funded in the 1950s is one of the largest hogs of grant money in our modern time. But this isn't by accident. It took a lot of hand-waving and dooms-day predicting to get the world to start writing the checks. This little nook of science found a way to make ITSELF the big story, where physics and medicine were the big players in the last century.

And going back to our culture of dwindling ethics...back in those heydays of scientific discovery, there was a lot of problems that were ripe for the picking, real world problems with real world answers. Science was competitive back then just as it is now, but the ETHICS of those days, for the most part, kept people on track and the work that sprung from it was useful, relevant, and trustworthy.

Today, the very same people who are in their private lives cheating on their wives, cheating on their income taxes, neglecting their families, using and abusing drugs and alcohol, etc etc are the same people working for these reseatch institutions and frauding the global taxpayer to pay for their grant money. Yes, I'm making assumptions about their character, but I've been in and around research universities plenty enough to have a feel for the typical old hippie professor who never grew up and decided to make a career out of school. In other words, the same ethical dilemmas that face society at large are found in the character of these scientists and the Climategate e-mails verify it for me.
 
1000 year old trees don't tend to grow in the tropics. D-E-B-U-N-K-E-D

What makes you so sure?

Scientists Estimate the Age of Trees in the Amazon
**broken link removed**
January 7, 1998
Using the newest, most powerful technology available, scientists in California and Brazil have dated tropical trees harvested in Brazil, finding that the oldest trees were well over 1,000 years old, substantially older than maximum ages previously predicted by most researchers.
The findings, published in Nature, are based on a radiocarbon dating technique that uses very small samples, allowing scientists to obtain wood from the core of a tree at its base.

UCSB Press Release: "Scientists Estimate the Age of Trees in the Amazon"
 
The evidence isn't all that strong or clear, but is being sold as absolutely reliable. The first point that made me a little suspicious, most of the scientist of the past weren't that attached, they were excited that everything was working out, hopeful they found the answer, and admitted more study needs to be done. Everything was an open book, and you could reproduce the work independently.

How many people can go to the ice caps, drill mile deep holes? Probably just a few teams ever did, so you have to trust their findings. The raw data seems pretty meaningless, a lot of math needs to be applied. These guys are the only source, everyone has to turn to them for answers. The answers are one sided, no alternate interpretations are accepted, and is very circular. You have to just trust, you can't verify. Not very scientific.

The last point is the urgency, we have to act now, but we aren't going to see any significant increases for hundreds of years. Will another few years make or break us?

Considering how the rest of civilization is sliding into the septic tank, I'm guessing in this will be a huge success. It's already won a film award, a Nobel Prize (well, so did Obama, so guess that doesn't add much), it's very popular and trendy now. Has it's own language, and interpretation of how the world turns. I guess if it's okay for two men to be legally married, this couldn't be wrong either.
 
You're making big assumptions. You have nothing to back up the cheating and corruption in the scientific community. Those things have always been around, even more so during the "golden" age of discovery. Scientists at that time were like rock stars and had many more opportunities to cheat and corrupt.

As for the tree ring, by and large is a good measure for correlation with currently measured temperatures. The data in question is non-correlated and so is used in some analysis and not in others. I am comfortable that the scientists who have studied and compiled the data have adequately explained the anomalies and justified their inclusions or exclusions. After studying natural science for most of my life, I am aware that it is sometimes messy and not at all like research conducted in the laboratory. For example, meteorology is a scientific endeavor which has not completely matured, but when the weatherman says takes a raincoat, I take it and in the overwhelming case, am very glad I did. I have looked at other disciplines of natural science and I'm comfortable with the method of collecting and summarizing data. Most often when I read counter claims, they are incomplete in their analysis or only sampling and reporting a subset of data, which is never spelled out in the conclusions or analysis. In these cases, I see the same sort of thing happening.

Also, tree rings, ice cores, sedimentary analysis is sound science ever though there are challenges interpreting the results. There are many aspects of tree rind analysis alone, not just total mass or ring width, but also the density of late season growth and other aspects. And to be clear, low latitude and low altitude tree ring growth correlates very well with measured data. I'm satisfied with the scientific analysis of these measures, the correlation and convergence of data. This is still an active area of research, and I'm still learning about it. So far, I see nothing that debunks the data and conclusions that's been published. Neither has NOAA, USGS, NASA or a dozen other government agencies seen reason to not take the research seriously.
 
Well, I'm glad you have faith in tree rings, I guess somebody outside of the dendro community should have faith in them, because per the e-mails the dendro scientists don't have any faith in their own work and actively skewed it and had discussions about hiding the stuff that doesn't jive! You are welcome to hang in there and have faith in them. Also, I'm not working off any assumptions about their character. It is all in the e-mails! I gather you haven't bothered to read them.
 
Actually you already said you are making assumptions about their character, so you're arguing with yourself. Thanks for saving me the trouble. I haven't seen anything about the stolen e-mails that would suggest you're right. All I've seen is cherry-picked, out of context excerpts.
 


What species of tree were they talking about? I read through several times (short article), but could find any real information. Break-through carbon dating technique, untested or verified? Will admit I was a little distracted every time I got to the section on 'climate models', which kind of leads me to believe this is a replacement data set, for where the tree ring data was tossed out. Santa Barbara...? Oh, that's where OJ Simpson was found not guilty of murder, but still had to pay millions for his ex dying... Why bring that up? Your article hints that trees might still validate the Climate models, gives no useful details. Not even sure if tree is an accurate description, since there are some very large plants in the jungle as well. Hadn't realized carbon dating was accurate on living tissue, something relatively new I guess. Guess they will need to factor in the age of the tree, before it was cut for lumber, on all those archeology finds... Wouldn't that kind of add a few hundred years, to previously dated finds?

Seems consistent with the rest of the methods thus far, still no sale.
 
Also, tree rings, ice cores, sedimentary analysis is sound science ever though there are challenges interpreting the results. There are many aspects of tree rind analysis alone, not just total mass or ring width, but also the density of late season growth and other aspects. And to be clear, low latitude and low altitude tree ring growth correlates very well with measured data. I'm satisfied with the scientific analysis of these measures, the correlation and convergence of data. This is still an active area of research, and I'm still learning about it. So far, I see nothing that debunks the data and conclusions that's been published. Neither has NOAA, USGS, NASA or a dozen other government agencies seen reason to not take the research seriously.

What I read from this, is that only trees that fit the profile were selected to study the global warming. The polar ice, and a narrow band, of selected trees, of a few species, prove all true? Government funded agency, don't usually get a lot of funding if they don't produce something useful. The people with the checkbook, tend to be most generous to areas most popular and interesting. NASA has be getting cut for years, people aren't all that interest in space these days. I live in Central Florida, we see the economic impact when they cut back.

If it's a global study, then you have to include global data. You just can't discard everything that doesn't fit your desired results. You find out why it doesn't work, why it doesn't match up. Can't use it, find something else? That doesn't make you think, even just a little?
 
Yes Mike, but did you bother to read the part about tropical trees not having growth rings? LOL. We're talking about dendroclimatology here, not carbon dating. Totally irrelevant.

The article is indeed relevant to refute your claims that trees in the tropics do not reach a thousand years of age.
 
It does show that the claim that trees didn't grow on the tropics 1000 years ago is D-E-B-U-N-K-E-D. If the claimant got that so wrong, I have to question all the other off the cuff claims he is making. The carbon dating was not breakthrough, but the technology used is considered the most accurate instrumentation available. Of course, this was in 1998, so I'm sure that's not the case any longer. I know of no reason that carbon dating cannot be performed on living tissue as long as it can be determined that tissue is no longer absorbing the isotope, and I'm sure that can be pretty easily determined. But anyway, there are plenty of trees growing at lower attitudes, and have tree rings for analysis as described **broken link removed**. I found this part particularly interesting:

Today, scientists have painstakingly established an unbroken succession of rings extending back in time over 80 centuries (8,000 years). Cross-dating is a valuable tool in dendrochronology and archaeology

Also, it seems annual tree rings exist in tropical trees after all:

In the tropical rain forest, relatively few species of trees, such as teak, have visible annual rings. The difference between wet and dry seasons for most trees is too subtle to make noticeable differences in the cell size and density between wet and dry seasonal growth. According to Pascale Poussart, geochemist at Princeton University, tropical hardwoods have "invisible rings." She and her colleagues studied the apparently ringless tree (Miliusa velutina) of Thailand. Their team used X-ray beams at the Brookhaven National Synchrotron Light Source to look at calcium taken up by cells during the growing season. There is clearly a difference between the calcium content of wood during the wet and dry seasons that compares favorably with carbon isotope measurements. The calcium record can be determined in one afternoon at the synchrotron lab compared with four months in an isotope lab.


And lastly, here is a measure of historic temperatures that does not include long term tree ring data: Which can be found **broken link removed**
 

Attachments

  • moberg-2005-large.jpg
    moberg-2005-large.jpg
    11.7 KB · Views: 141
Brownout, it's not sound science until it proves itself by long term positive predictions. Which in the case of weather and long term trends will take hundreds of years or more to occur. I hope it's comforting to sit on information that can't be proven within your own lifetime, the rest of science is looking at things objectionably with the certain knowledge that what we know now is absolutely positively NOT the way things actually are. In the case of tree ring data it might even taken another few dozen/hundred millennium to observe though. The age of the earth being 4.5 billion years or so, the dataset is so small as to be completely disregarded in the first place and we may never even really know due to insufficient sampling ability. We simply can't ever really know. Our ability to know what's coming is really limited to future observations because we're constantly learning about new things which fundamentally upset our previous 'facts'
 
Last edited:
Out standing points skaidwain, Ke5frf, mikebits, and harvey42!
Those obvious and questionable morals and ethics problems is what has in a larger part shaped my reasonings to not trust the global warming and climate change dooms day predictors.

For me the believers screaming doomsday is near and then continually getting caught lying, having tossing out piles of evidence that did not support their claims, the overall disregard for real scientific procedure and analysis methods they have over looked, plus the regularity and levels of all of these things that they keep getting caught doing is just too much for me.

I can accept a plausible theory if it based on fair and unbiased process and procedure. But when it done using the numbers, methods and gross levels of weighting, and manipulating the real data that the global warming and climate change supporters use I will never believe or follow it.:(

These threads have in my opinion very accurately shown how this issue is handled and has surprisingly followed the real politics of the larger scale of it as well.
Two people here scream it is real and that they have all the proof that it is real yet they show the least amount of plausible evidence to support their claims but have instead given a steady supply of false claims based on incorrect or limited data and have used high levels of false assumptions and association of effects to back it up. Yet then they oddly continue to keep asking the skeptics to prove their data on ever more larger and conclusive levels every time. Which of course we do! :D

If you want to win the climate change game stop asking the other team to bring out more and more supportive and scientifically confirmed, cross referenced, and documented information while you on the other hand give less and less plausible information yet are often to be seen as to be making up more and more nonsense that is easily debunked and proven to be wrong! If you want to prove someone is wrong about why they dont believe you then bring out solid conclusive information that supports your reasonings and fits into the full scale and range of the systems in question. :D
Picking at fractions of percents that come from very low accuracy and or limited points of reference that are spread out over vast areas and time frames that can not be properly and scientifically accounted for doesn't support much of anything. Neither does the then trying to back it up with reasonings based on your obvious and apparent lack of knowledge and experience in the subjects just makes you look that much worse! :(

There is a reason the non believers keep gaining numbers and credit in the eyes of the general public. We dont tell anyone that they have to 'believe us or else' but rather just say here is what we understand to be reasonably accurate and true at this time, What do you think?
And if they dont understand something we explain it as we see it and offer up the suggestion to where they may possibly be able to find more information about it.
We dont scream 'YOUR THE ENEMY AND THE PROBLEM!' then take a troll fisted swing at them every time they ask a question we dont have a solid answer to!;)
 
The science is sound because it uses scientific methods, sampling, correlation of disperse data, core samples, measurements and analysis. Science is not restricted to only what can be proved or observed in a single lifetime. If that was the case, we would not have the science of astronomy and geology, and yet we don't say that isn't sound. We only say that about the science we don't like.

In spite of all the "screaming" that we believers haven’t been showing factual data, analysis and results using scientific methods, we are the only ones in this debate who are. As I've shown, all of the evidence to the contrary has been incomplete, grossly exaggerated and misrepresented. Once one begins to look under the hood of these claims, they fall apart.
 
Last edited:
The article is indeed relevant to refute your claims that trees in the tropics do not reach a thousand years of age.
I said they don't "tend" to grow to be 1000 years old. And the article supports this. The article implies that 1000 years is just about the MAXIMUM found in the tropics, whereas in temperate to cold climates trees can live to be several times older. The article says that "some" trees have been carbon dated to be around 1000 years old. We aren't talking about entire forests of millenia old trees here. We're talking rare samples. Sparse population of uncommonly old trees do not a proxy make. This article doesn't invalidate the common wisdom that the tropics are not generally hospitable for trees to reach such maturity at any kind of statistical frequency. Hardwoods in the tropic are typically exotic compared to the Oaks, for instance, of the higher latitudes. And as the article points out, these trees are not used for proxies because there aren't definable "growing seasons" in areas where the climate isn't variable. Tree rings are a feature somewhat unique to temperate regions.
 
There is a reason the non believers keep gaining numbers and credit in the eyes of the general public.
**broken link removed**

So you really consider yourself a non believer? The term non believer puts you into an extremest camp, where the term skeptic allows room for input from both sides. I tend to favor the belief that AGW is real, but I am open for wiggle room and will listen to both sides, but I hardly consider conveniently copied and pasted snippets of an email as evidence to some sort of conspiracy. Would have been nice If the emails would have been posted in the entirety, but then the context may have been fully understood. Then again that might not have worked out so well for the nay-sayers.
 
Last edited:
"What Moberg et al did was to combine, using wavelets, a high frequency signal from tree rings with the low frequency signals of ice cores, boreholes, cave stalagmites, and lake and ocean sediments, which contain information at centennial scales, but are based on less precise dating. I understand Moberg et al did not trust the long-term signal from tree rings, so that was extracted."

Bingo! This is why the rest of the climatology community is trying to use tree rings...because the other "proxies" can't be resolved any more precisely than to the "mean century" global temps.

You do realize that the modern temps are grafted at the end, but aren't averaged out? If you took the average of the last centuries temps, that sharp peak at the end wouldn't be there. The average would be somewhere in the mddle, very close to the statistical mean of the MWP.
 
Mike, have you not actually read the e-mails? There are 1000s of them, posted in their entirety and in context. I've read only about 200 of them myself. But that was enough to see what was going on.
 
Brownout, it is hard to comprehend how someone with good electronics sense can be so oblivious to the mathematical and visual tricks used in those graphs. Do you look at this propaganda without questioning it in the least? I mean, it only took me one glance to see the "slight of hand" behind grafting instrument records on a graph depicting temperatures at century-scale resolution. Why don't people get this? And its the same story through the entire mess. Visual manipulation of data and graphs to fool the people who don't care to see past it.
 
I see lots of visual manipulatoin in the so-called "data" that proports to debunk the science. My question is why don't you?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest threads

New Articles From Microcontroller Tips

Back
Top