I don't believe there will be artificial intelligence in my life time, Or the lifetime of my Grandchildren. Yes, there are systems that mimic intelligence but they are just very knowledgeable databases. As a programmer, I cannot see a path to intelligence. We still have no idea how the brain works. How could we ever surpass it?
Mike.
PS, is Serrie (sp? - apple girl) intelligent?
Without getting into the debate on the subject..... AI is alot like Global warming, from the very start it has been given a snappy but incorrect name. In the case of what is termed Global warming it might have proved better to call it climate change. Same kind of thing with AI, as you point out its not really intelligence as such but clever or rather sophisticated programming, but a truly intelligent system would surely require some biological component.
I can see AI getting to the point it appears intelligent but as with the chat bots if you say something it dosnt grasp your always going to get a stock answer to the effect of 'I dont have a clue what you just said'.
I think AI as we know and understand it is in a comfortable zone, i really wouldnt be a fan of a truly intelligent system, As I said before if a machine or computer was completely logical AND intelligent I dont think it would tolerate people for long.
I saw some really clever things at the uni the other day, but when you compare it with say ANTS (no ant bashing) then even top end AI cant compete with that they are able to do and achieve with no intelligence.
The one aspect of AI that does intrigue me is the swarm bots I saw, they are kind of modeled on ant like behavior, very very clever programming and really interesting to watch.
Then we have the whole tech growth is ex potential, so if you consider how long it took to go from caves to the industrial revolution it was a long time, but from steam to putting a man on the moon was very quick (in comparison), then from the moon to rovers on Mars is another giant leap. Even computers being rare 30-40 years ago? and now the average pc outcomputes a 1980's super computer. So I am kind of wary with time frames as tech has a way of jumping up a scale every couple of years.
I dont remember them but our tech teacher was talking about 9" floppy disks being a big break through then smaller ones holding 1meg of data being a big leap. I know we still have have a very old DX66 486 computer that was dads, it was considered a power users computer because it had a 1 meg video card and 8 megs of ram with a 120 meg HDD! Not sure of the age but I think the early 90's.
So maybe taking that as a bench mark another 100 years could be interesting times.
I still think it was asking for trouble getting it to behave like a teenage girl, I cant see the rationale behind that. Also giving it txt like speak and making it 'street' was always going to attract the wrong people. Shame they didnt try a couple of variations.