Assuming no leakage current within the supercap. The cap's leakage rate will likely be greater then your 500 nA load current. There may be a little back leakage through the original supply blocking diode also.
Thanks for the replies. According to Maxim, 500nA is the Max current needed to hold the RTC ticking. Min is 300nA.
Data sheets do not show the exact internal leakage in nA, but give an estimate of 1 volt drop after 500 hours (from 5 to 4 volt drop). And this is dependent on the temperature of course.
Have charged the cap and will see how it goes.
In any case over a month is very good for zero cost maintainace RTC (no battery, that is).
John