The human mind and random numbers

[3v0]

I was watching Through the Wormhole with Morgan Freeman, episode "Is there a sixth sense".

They mention that random number generators produce less random numbers when there are events that have the attention on many minds. To research this Roger Nelson formed Global Consciousness Project (GCP). You can read more about it there.

The idea is intriguing, and has me wondering what sort of random number generator they are using.

 

[jpanhalt]

What is the definition of a major event? It seems that if one defines a major event essentially as one that shows a "deviation," then the study is simply invalid. One needs an independent definition of a major event and then study the data prospectively for every such event. (Finding likenesses of famous people in cloud formations and vegetable is just one example of that type of fallacy.) for One needs a control, such as randomly selected times with the same durations as the major events. Finally, the study site locations are biased to North America and Europe. What effect do major events in central Africa or South America have on the data?

I agree, I would like to know what random number generator was being used.

John

 

[KeepItSimpleStupid]

I have seven senses: The two extra's

1. The paranormal one (traditional sixth sense) and I've learned to trust it.
2. (Seventh sense) Sensitivity to the second derivative of barometric pressure vs. time 0-48 hrs before a significant rain event.

 

[duffy]

Some of those "major events" the Global Consciousness Project used to explain its data included things like Oprah's trip to Africa and the season finale' of "Survivor". Get real.

 

[3v0]

I recall the final episode of MASH as being a major event. A good chunk of the US population was glued to the TV. The restraunts and streets were rather empty.

On the other hand I am not sold on it but would like to get my hands on the equipment and give it a go.

 

[tcmtech]

I think this approach gets quite a bit of reverse analysis tossed at it to make it work.

When ever they get trend above or below what would be the typical average they just have to read the world news until they find a 'coincidental' occurrence to match it to.

 

[3v0]

From the article.

It may be that the interest and desires of the people in the EGG project produce what is called an "experimenter effect" which is registered by the detectors. It may also be that the nature of the question we ask somehow shapes the outcome, and there may be subtle contributions from other sources.
...
We can be quite sure these results represent a genuine anomaly, but at this point, it is not possible to offer a definitive explanation. There are suggestions that might begin to explain these effects, although these remain speculative.

 

[jpanhalt]

As you say, from the article:

We can be quite sure these results represent a genuine anomaly, but at this point, it is not possible to offer a definitive explanation. There are suggestions that might begin to explain these effects, although these remain speculative.

Perhaps there is just a typo and "can be quite sure" should be "can't be quite sure." They used p=0.05 as the definition of an anomaly. Such "anomalies" would occur about once every 20 samples or so. I sure hope my doctor is more than 95% sure I have cancer before he amputates.

John

 

[DJDAudio]

I was very curious of the effect of random number generators and computers.
I built these apps to exploit what I found,

**broken link removed**

This is a graph with 1,1 in the top right and 0,0 in the bottom left. I have the computer generate a random number of 0 or 1 like a coin flip, I then graph the result, I keep doing this over and over. If the number was 100% random such as Pi you would have the dots floating around 0,0 and not deviating much.

But let the above run, interesting things start to happen!

There are (3) Dots, for 3 data sets, then there is one that is the average of all 3.

Here are some more,

**broken link removed**

This one will draw its path.

**broken link removed**

And this one just for fun, will do a painting, it will pick a random brush color, size, stroke, and length of time to use it.

As you will find it is fun to watch to see what the computer finds as random.

 

[duffy]

Nifty app, Doug! Looks like you are using the random number to plot the delta x & y instead of absolute x & y. Are you sure pi would really stay closer to the origin with this approach?

 

[DJDAudio]

Nifty app, Doug! Looks like you are using the random number to plot the delta x & y instead of absolute x & y. Are you sure pi would really stay closer to the origin with this approach?

Yes the change in the value as added on to what was its last position. and I found irrational numbers such as Pi and Phi as well as 'e' remained close to home even after days of running.

I originally built this for I developed an encrypting algorithm that is based on the calculation of irrational number strings. and I used the above to prove to a computer it would appear as a 100% pure random correlation of numbers. and not a decipherable data set.

I can't give all of the details. but many 'code cracking' programs where not able to break my cipher. have to love nature!

 

[duffy]

Pi, the Golden ratio AND the Euler's number? Even after days of processing??? This seems profound!

Did you plot them on a 1d line, or make a 2d Poincaré projection with alternate digits? How did you get the additional digits - did you derive them using a power series, or did you have access to a big lookup table? If you derived them, what level of precision did you use to hold the significand after each iteration? Actionscript can go to double-precision.

 

[DJDAudio]

Pi, the Golden ratio AND the Euler's number? Even after days of processing??? This seems profound!

Did you plot them on a 1d line, or make a 2d Poincaré projection with alternate digits? How did you get the additional digits - did you derive them using a power series, or did you have access to a big lookup table? If you derived them, what level of precision did you use to hold the significand after each iteration? Actionscript can go to double-precision.

I know I found the right forum! People who know what I am talking about haha.

For The golden ration I used the Fibonacci sequence, and would divide each consecutive number for each iteration as it approached the golden ratio. I did run into a problem though with variable length in flash.

For Pi I just used long division and continued to return the remainder as a value.

'e' was just a large text file I pulled from online and read into flash.

I wish I still had these , all of them where on my laptop when the Hard drive went on the fritz I will do some looking latter on for some of my other projects.

As for how the data was used,

Lets say the string was 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0

I would use it as such,

Graph Object.(X,Y)
X=X+1
Y=Y+2
X=X-3
Y=Y-4
X=X+5
Y=Y+6
X=X-7
Y=Y-7
X=X+8
Y=Y+9
....
..
.

And so on. A strange way of going about it, but I found if truly random I would have an equal number on both sides of addition and subtraction so the net value would remain close to (0)

 

[canadaelk]

Down the rabbit hole - again! E

 

[Sceadwian]

Every occurrence of the phrase 'random number' has to be removed from this post and replaced with 'pseudo random number'
Random, by definition requires an unpredictable value to be summoned when it is picked but has equipotential values averaged over time. No pseudo random number generator when analyzed with sufficient statistical prowess meets that end goal. It's very closely tied to encryption.

The study 3v0 mentioned I've heard about many times, and I question it's veracity on only one point, there is no accounting currently for the error rates of the study. The math is really mind boggling analyzing these things, especially when the input has to produced by human beings which are anything but sources of correct information. Subtle psychological play under these conditions can DRASTICALLY effect their perceived outcome.

It's like the placebo effect, except it's social in nature. Itriguing yes, something to be studied, but I think the results of these types of studies need to be VERY closely looked at with a hyper critical mind, as our crude intellects will see things where they do not exist. There is only data, the data must be processed and information must be assessed for the next experiment until you keep getting the same results.

 

[Mr RB]

...
Random, by definition requires an unpredictable value to be summoned when it is picked but has equipotential values averaged over time. No pseudo random number generator when analyzed with sufficient statistical prowess meets that end goal. It's very closely tied to encryption.
...

That's not really true. Any good psuedo random number generator will be indistinguishable from pure entropy when the sample size is sufficently small, ie smaller than it's repeat size. Given the enormous number of states in a good crypographic RNG (like; https://www.romanblack.com/black_rng.htm) any short term output is as good as (or better) than a physical RNG like a nuclear decay RNG.

So if you are determined to analyse using "sufficient statistical prowess" that MUST ALSO include an incredibly large sample size.

Back on topic, I'm not a believer of the "world events influence RNG" concept. I mean, if the RNG had an antenna, sure enough it may be influenced by mild positive or negative charge in the world around it. But in the tests done now there is not even a concrete distinction between positive=1 or positive=0 in the relationship between voltage and the bit generated.

 

[Sceadwian]

So if you are determined to analyse using "sufficient statistical prowess" that MUST ALSO include an incredibly large sample size.

Of course, it would be silly to think otherwise. That's basic statistics, the size of the data pool determines the precision or accuracy of the results in relation to the frame of observation.

 

[duffy]

Lets say the string was 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,0
I would use it as such,
Graph Object.(X,Y)
X=X+1
Y=Y+2
X=X-3
Y=Y-4

That certainly looks like a Poincaré projection. It seems strange to me, too - but it's routinely used to map chaos boundaries.

Afraid I don't quite follow "just used long division" for pi, though. What were you doing there?

 

[3v0]

I'm not a believer of the "world events influence RNG" concept. I mean, if the RNG had an antenna, sure enough it may be influenced by mild positive or negative charge in the world around it. But in the tests done now there is not even a concrete distinction between positive=1 or positive=0 in the relationship between voltage and the bit generated.

I am not a believer but I would like to give it a try. I have the same doubts as you expressed above. For that reason I am still interested in finding out what they used for a RNG.

 

[DJDAudio]

For Pi I used the closest approximation I could find quickly 355/113 then then used the good old method of long division where the remainder is returned. It goes on forever. I admit it I had to brush off the old text books to remember how to long divide and then teach a computer code how too haha.