Oil Shortage

[4pyros]

Oil Peak;
http://www.oildecline.com/
this stuff scares me.

 

[BrownOut]

Scary stuff indeed. Not enough is being done to find alternatives.

 

[duffy]

It is. We really don't know how much the Arabs actually have, and there are scary reports about the "water cut" being clear up to 70-30 now on the big fields. The fact that people are seriously using mining operations, with shovels, to haul truckloads of tar sand to a steam bath to extract heavy crude indicates a level of price-driven desperation that didn't exist twenty years ago. The oil is a finite resource and we are going to run out of it someday.

One weirdly interesting idea is that it is possible to make oil from atmospheric CO2 and water - only drawback is that you basically need a nuclear power plant to do it on a useful scale. Carbon neutral and viable, if you can just get past the whole "nuclear energy" thing.

 

[Nigel Goodwin]

Scary stuff indeed. Not enough is being done to find alternatives.

Loads and loads is been done, the oil companies aren't stupid, they are spending huge sums in research - they want to be supplying whatever happens next.

 

[4pyros]

Loads and loads is been done, the oil companies aren't stupid, they are spending huge sums in research - they want to be supplying whatever happens next.

Do you have any links to what thay are doing?

 

[3v0]

Do you have any links to what thay are doing?

If I ran a company doing original alternative energy research I would do everything I could to keep it secret. As soon as it is announced many other companies will do similar research and the lawyers will drain the life out of it.

If I had an oil company I would keep my research under my hat as long as I had a good supply of oil to market.

I am guessing that most everything made public has little to do with actual lines of research. But I tend to be a bit paranoid.

 

[tcmtech]

One weirdly interesting idea is that it is possible to make oil from atmospheric CO2 and water - only drawback is that you basically need a nuclear power plant to do it on a useful scale. Carbon neutral and viable, if you can just get past the whole "nuclear energy" thing.

Try doing the numbers though. The volumes of air needed to even get one barrel of atmospheric crude produced are astronomically staggering not to mention the total energy needed to drive said processing.

Loads and loads is been done, the oil companies aren't stupid, they are spending huge sums in research - they want to be supplying whatever happens next.

One they are drilling stateside now. North Dakota is poised to be come the new Texas in the US over the next decade or two.

Then there is the Thorium based reactor technology thats being researched. Easily scaled in size, considerably less danger and safety controls needed. Very low radiation output, non self sustaining reaction, vastly plentiful fuel source, capable of assembly line mass production just to name a few things!

 

[4pyros]

Then there is the Thorium based reactor technology

Is that a cold reactor?

 

[tcmtech]

Its still nuclear if thats what you are wondering. It just uses a more stable fuel that is not capable of self sustaining reactions nor does it give off high levels of harmful radiation when in operation either. A good plate of aluminum alloy metal is more than enough for shielding!

This is the basic reactor concept.
**broken link removed**

Also associated with the molten salt type systems.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten_salt_reactor

Applications with existing reactors.
**broken link removed**

Basic Pros and Cons list.
**broken link removed**

Physical properties of Thorium.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium

 

[canadaelk]

Oil shortag! Hm..., I hadn't heard. I'm from Alberta. E

 

[4pyros]

Its still nuclear if thats what you are wondering.

NO I was thinking of cold fusion.

 

[BrownOut]

Loads and loads is been done, the oil companies aren't stupid, they are spending huge sums in research - they want to be supplying whatever happens next.

Well, your loads aren't my loads. The world is still addicted to oil, and that addiction only grows. There is still no viable replacement. Oil companys don't care about supplying future energy; they only want to make as much money as they can from whatever oil is left to drill. Oil companys won't be the institutions who will supply the world's future energy needs.

 

[Sceadwian]

There is currently no need for a viable replacement BronwnOut.. Just fear that one may be needed. Luckily this is plenty to drive industry and research to find better methods of extracting energy from our environment, how that pans out over time is going to take... quiet a bit =)

If gas in the US ever hits 5-10 dollars a gallon, people will walk, people will use public transport and bikes, they will do whatever they have to do to use whatever isn't current practical. For now.. Gas works fine.

Unless some absolutely massive major discovery of a new energy source is discovered, fossil fuel will be in use for the foreseeable future.

You sound like every energy alarmist I've ever seen in the news... Instant doom is well at hand, tomorrow is the day we all will run out!!

Hasn't happened yet, and the world doesn't work like a silly quotable's file. You don't just one day show up empty, for something like the globe and it's sources of energy and their uses it takes DECADES to change anything!

 

[BrownOut]

Actually, there is a current need for a replacement. For one, it's incredibly stupid to think we can just wait until the oil we base the world's economy is gone before replacing it. That would be too late to avoid a catastrophe. Better extraction methods will help, but they cannot prevent the inevitable, that the peak will come. It's not a question of if, but of when. People walking or whatever is not relevant to the disaster that will occur when factories, planes, trains, ships, and etc can no longer operate economically. Secondly, the world will require a number of energy technologies in the future. No single source will supply all the needs as fossil fuels have (mostly) done. Thirdly, massive populations are coming online with transportation, energy, technology, etc, which will put extreme strain on existing energy technologies. This is not alarmists as you so foolishly say its simple reality. Fossil fuel reserves are finite, and the peak is coming. Best to be prepared.

 

[Pommie]

If gas in the US ever hits 5-10 dollars a gallon, people will walk, people will use public transport and bikes, they will do whatever they have to do to use whatever isn't current practical. For now.. Gas works fine.

True but will the farmer be able to cope with a horse drawn plough? As oil runs out the cost of everything will rise, people will have to work harder for a basic living.

However, I did find the article a little overstated, especially,

In addition, physicist Jonathan Huebner has concluded in The History of Science and Technology that the rate of innovation in the US peaked in 1873, and the current rate of innovation is about the same as it was in 1600. According to Huebner, by 2024 it will have slumped to the same level as it was in the Dark Ages.

Can anyone believe this?

Mike.

 

[tcmtech]

True but will the farmer be able to cope with a horse drawn plough? As oil runs out the cost of everything will rise, people will have to work harder for a basic living.

Its things like this that I just don't get. Oil will not just run out one day. Oil reserves in the ground are much more like saturated sponges than hollow tanks. They don't just suddenly hit an empty point and are 100% done with rather they gradually diminish their flow rates and that can take multiple decades for an actual well to go completely dormant.

Same with farming practices. One day all the farm machinery will not just run out of fuel either. There are far too many people like me who can and will find alternative methods to keep our life styles going.

No more diesel fuel? No problem bio diesel can be made from crop residues that will keep machines going. Or there is simply the conversion to other fuels. Converting most diesel engines to run on propane or natural gas is not terribly difficult and both will be around for far longer than crude oil will be coming out of a well. Once the liquid flow diminishes in a well most still can provide plenty of natural gas with propane is a byproduct of natural gas collection and refinement.

To go even further wood gasification also works with other cellulose based organic materials and that is well known to be a feasible although somewhat inconvenient fuel to use in vehicles. Lastly the wind, hydroelectric plants, solar, nuclear all work without without the direct need for any fossil fuels already.

In the end many will be knocked back considerably but not every one will be living the dark ages life! Those of us who know the what and hows of machines, power generation, and self sufficiency will still continue on. (Probably for the better being there will be far less traffic and people to deal with!)

 

[duffy]

Can anyone believe this?Mike.

I wouldn't put it back to 1873, more like the early 20th century -

Plastics, the vacuum tube, transistor, radio, television, superconductivity, fluorescent light, led, rockets, atomic theory/bomb/energy, discovery of DNA, relativity, quantum physics, the electronic computer, the IC chip, X-ray, MRI, the electron microscope, organ transplants, penicillin, birth control pills, tectonic plate theory, the airplane, rocket, Sputnik - Mariner - Pioneer - Venera, Uri Gagarin, the moon landing, Hubble expansion, nucleosynthesis, cosmological theory, black hole theory...

This is just the stuff I can think of off the top of my head, certainly even more happened.

What have we done lately? Cell phones? Internet? Faster this, smaller that? More like refining existing technologies. String theory? Philosophy. Dark matter, dark energy? Jumped up and bit physicists on the ass. Human genome? Still waiting for the payoff. There seems to be a definite slump in innovation.

 

[3v0]

The article is more alarmist trash then anything.

If you look up Jonathan Huebner you will see that he is talking about innovation per capita. He also fails to include the effort expended on refinement of existing technology.

Excuse me while I hide from asteroids.

 

[4pyros]

Its things like this that I just don't get. Oil will not just run out one day. Oil reserves in the ground are much more like saturated sponges than hollow tanks. They don't just suddenly hit an empty point and are 100% done with rather they gradually diminish their flow rates and that can take multiple decades for an actual well to go completely dormant.

Yes but at some point it is no longer worth the cost of extractoin and thay will stop pumping it. Witch may take longer if the prices keep going up.

 

[Nigel Goodwin]

Well, your loads aren't my loads. The world is still addicted to oil, and that addiction only grows. There is still no viable replacement. Oil companys don't care about supplying future energy; they only want to make as much money as they can from whatever oil is left to drill. Oil companys won't be the institutions who will supply the world's future energy needs.

You seem to think oil companies are stupid? - which they aren't. That's why they are spending loads of their oil money on energy research, so they control future energy sources as well - it's simply good business.